High-frequency data confirm the strong pulse in real activity remains intact
July 10, 2024
Key Observations:
Growth in movement of goods, people, and electrons remains robust in the United States. High-frequency data confirm activity is stronger than feared by investors disappointed by the delay in expected rate cuts, the signs of slower growth in services, and the burgeoning pressures in labor.
Container rates continue to surge (A normal regime signal from North American rail traffic, 30-May-2024). The fee on the Shanghai to Los Angeles route was $7,472 per forty-foot equivalent (FTE) box as of July 4, according to Drewry. This price marks an increase of +122% since May 2. The world composite index for container freight advanced to $5,868 from $2,725 per FTE over the same interval (+115%).
Air travelers passing through TSA checkpoints surpassed 3 million persons in one day for the first time ever three days ago (July 7). That was the travel-home Sunday following the July 4 holiday. This seasonal result likely marks the single-day high for 2024. Nonetheless, air passenger traffic continues to outpace last year by a wide margin. Yesterday, travelers through TSA checkpoints exceeded the same-day, year-ago count by 198K persons (+8.3% YoY). Cumulatively ytd, the count of passengers through TSA checkpoints is 460 million persons for growth of +6.3% YoY.
As media reports focus on the severe power outages in Houston (4th most populous U.S. city) following landfall of Hurricane Beryl, we note U.S. power demand for natural gas surpassed 50 Bcf anyway. That’s only the 10th day that’s happened ever and the earliest seasonally. Cumulatively ytd, gas demand growth in this channel is +4.5% YoY.
Source: Drewry, TSA, Genscape, Blacklight Research.
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