Three countries now account for just under half of China's crude oil imports
June 25, 2024
Key Observations:
Russia was China’s largest external supplier of crude oil in May 2024 (19% share), according to China’s official customs statistics. Saudi Arabia provided 16% of China’s total crude imports, and “Malaysia” accounted for 13%. “Malaysia” is widely understood to mean shipments from Iran via Singapore (China’s trend crude oil imports leave bull case intact, 8-Aug-2023). China reports zero barrels of crude from Iran for the past two years.
Over that same time interval, Iran’s exports of crude oil have grown larger and become even more opaque. When still roadblocked by U.S. sanctions, Iran’s exports of crude averaged about 185 thousand b/d in the first five months of 2022. Last month, Iran shipped 1.4 million b/d, marking the 16th consecutive month above 1.0 million b/d.
Collectively, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and “Malaysia” account for 48% of China’s total crude oil imports in May-24, according to Chinese trade data. This share compares to 31% five years earlier, when the volume of China’s crude oil imports was also substantially smaller. China imported 9.5 million b/d in May-19. The May-24 figure: 11.1 million b/d.
China’s import and consumption demand for oil liquids remain solidly constructive at current and higher prices. With 2024 approaching its midpoint, China’s end-use oil demand growth this year is still on track to match or exceed +400 thousand b/d. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth continues to pace our +1.15 million b/d baseline projection.
Bullish for crude and products in 3Q2024.
Source: CGA, NIOC, Blacklight Research.
Comments