The Blackbook, September 30, 2026

“Odds” means the options-implied, risk-neutral probability that the realized spot price at each future date will be that level or lower, for values to the left of the forward curve, or that level or higher, for values to the right of it. The market’s odds rely on the lognormal assumption of the Black-Scholes model. In reality, risk is not lognormal and actual risks skew away from the model on fatter, asymmetrical tails. The odds are model outputs; conditional probabilities alter risk.